Source:HIKING(BINZHOU) INTERNATIONAL TRADING SERVICE CO.,LTD AddTime:2014/12/16 10:17:31
Customs data map.
Imports of copper per ton of losses of about 5% by copper imports trade short-term trade financing
Graph / Ni Lixiang
Recently released by the General Administration of customs data display, the first three months of this year, Chinese imports of unwrought copper and copper products totaled 1361000 tons, year-on-year growth of 50.5%. The concern is, domestic and international copper prices remain upside down state since the beginning of this year, currently imports of copper per ton loss rate as high as 3000 yuan, a quarter of up to 4000 yuan / ton. Continuous imports plus production domestic smelting enterprises to grow steadily, the downstream demand is not the busy season, the price of copper market outlook is not optimistic.
Recently, the General Administration of Customs released data show: in March China imports of unwrought copper and copper 462000 tons, while in February year-on-year decrease of 22000 tons, but since last November since the fifth consecutive months of imports more than 400000 tons of high running on. 1~3 month accumulative total imports of unwrought copper and copper 1361000 tons, year-on-year growth of 50.5%.
Phenomenon 1:
Domestic import and international copper prices upside down and the high amount of
Chinese import demand support global copper prices, since the financial crisis, including crude oil and other commodity prices have experienced a slump, until now still not recovered to the level before the financial crisis. However, the international copper prices especially strong, by the beginning of 2011 has already been raised the highest level before the breaking of the financial crisis, and to break the $10000 mark in the fourth quarter of last year, although the international copper prices drop slightly, but the highest level of the current price is still with the pre financial crisis fairly, in copper prices rose sharply in the China traders work can not be No.
But what is more surprising, domestic copper prices did not actually so strong. The London Metal Exchange (LME) latest copper futures prices in 8000 U. s.dollars / ton, while the main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures price in 58000 yuan / ton near Shanghai, calculate freight, taxes and fees, imported from abroad of copper per ton to a loss of 3000 yuan, and the inversion phenomenon since the first quarter of this year has been going a long time, the highest rate of loss reached 4000 yuan per ton.
Phenomenon 2:
Consumption is not busy domestic high inventory
Everfount imports, domestic copper production is still growing. The National Bureau of statistics released data show that the first two months of this year, Chinese refined copper production was 870000 tons, an increase of 9.43%. And the copper consumption domestic situation is not optimistic, "April has entered the peak season of consumption, but the terminal enterprises downstream promising not to copper in the latter part of the trend, the enthusiasm to take the goods is not strong, the industry in the process of stock to in. "Chinese ship in Southern China, Chen Yunqin told reporters.
Adequate supply, demand weak consequence is that around the stock soared, South storage marketing department director Xu Tanwei told reporters, electrolytic copper base the company's warehouse in March this year reached 40000 tons, which is the company's highest level since the establishment of the previous years, the normal level of only 10000 tons. Yesterday, reporters once again understand the inventory of the company, obtains the answer is essentially unchanged.
CICC recently released a research report said that at present China's copper total inventory in 1200000 between ~130 million tons. Among them, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories and did not disclose the size of at least 1100000 tons, while domestic copper smelting factory and copper material factory copper inventory of about 140000 tons. CICC think, the stock is very high, and the two quarter China terminal demand may be weak in the past few years, so the Chinese copper stocks decline rate will be worrying.
Trend forecast
Copper prices remain bearish market outlook
In the high inventory and the macroeconomic outlook for the case of weak market later on, the copper price trend is not optimistic. This Monday, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell nearly 4%, closing approaching $8000, its largest one-day decline since December 14, 2011. Yesterday the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper main contract day decline range reaches as high as 2.53%, below 58000 yuan / ton mark.
Haitong futures investment consulting department general manager Tao Jinfeng said that the current international price of copper facing multiple air pressure. The market is expected to lower the deposit reserve ratio has nothing; the domestic real estate regulation not to relax; all over China inventory pressure. Yesterday copper consolidation pattern was broken, copper fell below the important support of 59000, means that a new round of bear market has opened the curtain, in the short-term decline in the target 55000~55500.
A probe into the causes of
Imports of copper cash trade financing
Rob Peter to pay Paul money
The pursuit of profit is a business nature, peibenzhuanyaohe things exactly is who stem? Chen Yunqin tells a reporter, now imported from abroad copper do unprofitable, plus the foreign product quality varies greatly, not suitable for the terminal for processing enterprises. He believes that in the price situation, some enterprises have a large number of imports, may be associated with trade financing.
A reporter found doing import copper trade merchant. When a reporter to ask him the profit mode, the traders said, "there are certainly other ways to make up the difference of the loss, or who would be willing to do? "But he was unwilling to disclose the specific mode of operation.
Shanghai metals analyst Wei Chishan told reporters, the traders said way is likely to trade financing. Trade finance is called traders first delivered to the bank is 20% of the total imports of electrolytic copper deposit, you can open 90 days or 180 days of letter of credit. After a month to get the electrolytic copper spot and rapid sales, equivalent to the short-term financing a sum of 60 or 150 days.
Wei Chishan said, "this is
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